Background: Behaviour change which is highly influenced by risk perception is a major challenge that HIV\r\nprevention efforts need to confront. In this study, we examined the validity of self-reported likelihood of HIV\r\ninfection among rural and urban reproductive age group Nigerians.\r\nMethods: This is a cross-sectional study of a nationally representative sample of Nigerians. We investigated the\r\nconcordance between self-reported likelihood of HIV and actual results of HIV test. Multivariate logistic regression\r\nanalysis was used to assess whether selected respondents� characteristics affect the validity of self-reports.\r\nResults: The HIV prevalence in the urban population was 3.8% (3.1% among males and 4.6% among females) and\r\n3.5% in the rural areas (3.4% among males and 3.7% among females). Almost all the respondents who claimed\r\nthey have high chances of being infected with HIV actually tested negative (91.6% in urban and 97.9% in rural\r\nareas). In contrast, only 8.5% in urban areas and 2.1% in rural areas, of those who claimed high chances of been\r\nHIV infected were actually HIV positive. About 2.9% and 4.3% from urban and rural areas respectively tested\r\npositive although they claimed very low chances of HIV infection. Age, gender, education and residence are factors\r\nassociated with validity of respondents� self-perceived risk of HIV infection.\r\nConclusion: Self-perceived HIV risk is poorly sensitive and moderately specific in the prediction of HIV status. There\r\nare differences in the validity of self-perceived risk of HIV across rural and urban populations.
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